Lebanon faces critical parliamentary elections on June 7 between the pro-western March 14 coalition and the March 8 coalition led by Hezbollah. Whatever majority might be gained by either side on June 7 will be very slim. The country will remain almost evenly divided between the two camps, and stable government cannot proceed without a broad coalition and a strong role for President Michel Suleiman, who was elected as a consensus candidate last year.
A careful consideration of the available options makes it clear that a broad-based government is the best way forward for Lebanon. If the March 8 coalition wins and the March 14 coalition boycotts, it could lead to economic collapse and push the state more fully into the waiting arms of Iran. If March 14 wins and March 8 is kept out, it could lead to a renewal of civil strife. The West and the international community should encourage the formation of a unity government after the election, and maintain their support for the country’s institutions, particularly the president and the national army.
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