Earlier this year, Russia officially ended more than ten years of ‘war’ in Chechnya, when it declared it was wrapping up its military counter-terrorist operations in the federal republic. Moscow will soon withdraw 25,000 security forces from a region that fought two brutal campaigns for independence from Russia (in 1994–96and from 1999 onwards) and was de facto outside of Moscow’s control for the periods 1991–94 and 1996–99. However, as no meaningful reconciliation has been achieved in Chechnya and violence is spreading across the North Caucasus, the outlook is grim. The formal end of hostilities is not expected to bring peace and democracy. Rather, regional instability is likely to continue for years.
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