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PRESIDENT Obama remains adamant about his policy of "engagement" with Iran. Yet he may soon find it hard to find a credible interlocutor in Tehran.

One can see the split down the middle of the ruling elite in all of the constituencies that together form the Khomeinist establishment.

The politically active segment of the Shiite clergy: Some senior mullahs (like Hussein-Ali Montazeri, Abdul-Karim Mousavi Ardebili and Yussef Sanei) side with the opposition. Others (such as Muhammad-Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi, Ahmad Jannati and Ahmad Khatami) support "Supreme Guide" Ali Khamenei, who has emerged as the regime's field commander.

The military: Defense Minister Gen. Mostafa Muhammad Najjar and Interior Minister Gen. Sadeq Mahsouli have sided with Khamenei's hard-line stance. Adm....