AP Photo

When Russian forces wiped the floor with the Georgian army in the two countries’ war last year, then crossed into Georgia proper to occupy positions from which they have yet to retreat, numerous experts heralded a new era in Moscow’s relations with the former Soviet republics. 

Russia as a regional power, as the conventional wisdom went, was back — and in a big way. Moscow had sent an unequivocal message to its former satellites: It would broach no threat to its vital interests in what it considered its sphere of influence. Should officials in Bishkek or Baku try something particularly objectionable, the Kremlin — as the Georgia events so clearly demonstrated — would take extreme measures to force the wayward governments back in...