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You've got to be careful with predictions. I remember writing an op-ed on the evening of the George Bush v Al Gore showdown, saying this was probably the most boring election in American history and that it didn't really matter who won because they were both nondescript grey men in suits and not particularly interested in foreign policy anyway. And then I went to bed. The rest is history: first Florida, then 9/11, Afghanistan, Iraq and so on. But still, I think it's a pretty safe bet to say that after Germany's general election on 27 September, Angela Merkel will still be chancellor. The only question is, will her foreign minister be the Social Democrat incumbent Frank-Walter Steinmeier or the Free Democrat challenger Guido Westerwelle? Which doesn't really matter, as Merkel is her own...