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Trade today reminds me of the story about the man who asks God whether his virtuous life has guaranteed that he will go to heaven. God replies: "I have good news and bad news for you. The good news is that you are indeed going to heaven. The bad news is that you are going there tomorrow." As we contemplate the future of world trade, which was devastated in the immediate aftermath of the twin crises on Wall Street and on Main Street, we have good and bad news concerning the prospects for a robust, open world economy.

There was much concern because trade volume had collapsed faster than world income. Did this imply that protectionism was breaking out? Were we backing into the 1930s with their spread of protectionism that accentuated the devastation caused by the Great Crash...