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In the autumn of 2004, on the threshold of the presidential election in Ukraine, an aide to then-President Leonid Kuchma, Viktor Medvedchuk, declared in an interview that he had no doubt of a victory for Viktor Yanukovych, the candidate supported by the country’s power base. Reminded that polls predicted victory for the oppositionist democrat Viktor Yushchenko, the functionary answered curtly, “Yushchenko will not be the president.”

Such certainty gave rise to criticism from representatives of the democratic camp, who accused Medvedchuk of preparing a program of electoral fraud on behalf of Yanukovych.

What happened next is well-known. The November 2004 elections were marred by unprecedented fraud, and Yanukovych was declared the winner, sparking huge...