AP Photo

The world is justifiably perplexed by how the popular uprising in Iran will shape that country’s future. The increasingly violent contest between the heterogenous opposition and a hardened regime is nothing if not opaque, complex and uncertain.

From Iran’s closest Arab neighbours, what is most perceptible is their silence. Beyond a principled reluctance to comment on another country’s internal affairs and a muted relief at seeing the Iranian system questioned from within, the silence is also explained by political caution and strategic confusion.