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Although Ukraine’s troubles with Russian gas and Russia’s troubles with Ukrainian transit are not over yet, political relations between the two countries should improve after the second round of the presidential election on Feb. 7. Regardless of who wins the final vote, one thing is sure: The country’s next president will be less antagonistic toward Moscow than outgoing President Viktor Yushchenko.

Nonetheless, although the two countries avoided a “gas war” this year, the underlying problems that caused previous gas wars remain unsolved. Naftogaz Ukrainy, the country’s unreformed, heavily taxed national oil and gas company, will struggle to pay for imports. Ukrainian industry, battered by the world economic crisis, will struggle to pay higher prices. And Gazprom,...