Feeble Recovery Hurts Cameron

Win a coaching session with Sir Ian McGeechan

Roland White

Where am I?

General elections are about mood, momentum and deep underlying sentiments such as “time for change”. But they are also about statistics and the statistical backdrop to the forthcoming election is getting interesting. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) last week said that Britain had scraped out of recession in the final quarter of last year. The margin, 0.1%, was the smallest possible and on an equivalent basis was less than a tenth of the rate America achieved over the same period. It should be unequivocally bad news for the government. Not only is Britain last out of recession among leading economies, directly contradicting Gordon Brown’s promise, but it is emerging more slowly. St George’s Day is inked into the politicians. If the ONS announces on April 23 that Britain has slipped back into recession in the first quarter it will be a big blow for Labour.

Yet something has changed the political weather. A YouGov poll yesterday put the Tory lead on just seven points, within hung parliament territory, and only half the 13-14 point leads the party was enjoying with the same polling organisation last month. It may be that despite the desperately disappointing official figures, Labour is benefiting from the gradual return of economic optimism. It may also be that the Tories are suffering from the other interpretation of the 0.1% GDP rise, that the economy is too vulnerable for aggressive Tory spending cuts. A good Conservative line of attack, that the prime minister’s mismanagement of the economy left Britain without the scope to introduce genuine recession-fighting measures and the weak figures are the consequence, is rarely heard. In its place has been austerity; a Tory government would immediately begin the task of cutting spending to appease the rating agencies and the markets, whatever the state of the economy.

David Cameron tried to finesse that message in Davos on Friday, perhaps as a result of conversations with the former chancellor Ken Clarke, his business spokesman. Immediate cuts in spending under a Conservative government need not be “particularly extensive”, he said. But they had to be the start of “a credible plan to eliminate a large part of the structural deficit over a parliament”.

Mr Cameron’s more subtle message is right. Markets and agencies are looking for a down-payment to show the government means business about getting the deficit down. Voters know this has to happen. But subtle messages get lost in the heat of an election campaign. Mr Brown, in his Downing Street podcast last night, gave us what will be Labour’s line on the economy: vote Tory and the country will be back in trouble. “Others propose immediate and drastic cuts in public services,” he said. “I have no doubt that if we did, before the recovery is fully locked in, we would return to recession. That is not the best course for Britain.”

The numbers have thrown up challenges for both parties. The Tory leader has the more coherent message. His challenge is to prevent his party members being seen as dangerous and irresponsible cutters. With the poll lead narrowing, that may not be easy.

Order By:

Would you like to post a comment? Please register or log in

function blogURL(bUrls) { window.location=bUrls; } fieldset { float:left; width:165px; border:0px; margin:0px; padding:0px; } OUR COLUMNISTS

Columnists

Select David Aaronovitch Simon Barnes Camilla Cavendish Jeremy Clarkson Giles Coren Robert Crampton Bill Emmott Daniel Finkelstein Michael Gove Anatole Kaletsky India Knight Dominic Lawson Leo Lewis Rod Liddle Magnus Linklater Ben MacIntyre Bronwen Maddox Minette Marrin Carol Midgley Caitlin Moran Richard Morrison Matthew Parris Michael Portillo Libby Purves William Rees-Mogg Melanie Reid Peter Riddell Hugo Rifkind Sathnam Sanghera Frank Skinner Graham Stewart Andrew Sullivan Rachel Sylvester Janice Turner Guest contributors

Blogs

Select Alpha Mummy Archive Blog David Aaronovitch Asia Exile Baby Barista Blockbuster Buzz Charles Bremner Big Brother Mary Beard Comment Central Cricket Blog Faith Central Formula One Ruth Gledhill Inside Iraq Ariel Leve India Knight Money Rafael Nadal News Blog William Rees-Mogg Rugby Sinofile Mick Smith Sports Commentary Irwin Stelzer Peter Stothard Technology Travel Urban dirt Wimbledon

Tools and Services Credit Clinic Restaurant Booking Encounters Business City Guides Financial Brochures Car Route Planner Books

Cartoon More cartoons Times Letters

Letters for publication on the letters page of The Times should be emailed here. Letters should include an address and daytime telephone number.

Sunday Times Letters

Letters for publication on the letters page of The Sunday Times should be emailed here or posted to us at 1, Pennington St, London E98 1ST. Fax: 020 7782 5454

"I forgot he was black" US reacts to the State of the Union speech Comment Central Feedback Sally Baker

Our Feedback Editor answers your queries

MOST READ MOST COMMENTED MOST CURIOUS Most Read Skip Most Read Today Godfather Colin Gunn used Facebook to run... Nasa mission to unravel sun’s threat... Rugby greats get heated around the table China bugs and burgles Britain MOST COMMENTED Skip Editor's Pick Today if(isArticle == "true" && articleHeadlines.length!=0){ for(var j=0; j=45){ headline = articleHeadlines[j].substring(0,44)+"..."; } document.write(""+headline +""); } }else{ fSubmitMostCommented('http://community.timesonline.co.uk/ver1.0/Direct/Process'); } MOST CURIOUS Skip Most Curious Today My furry client bleats not guilty One day, girls, you will laugh at this Children spend 7 hours a day in... Parenting guru Gina Ford to put party... Focus Zone Need to Know:

Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast

Winter Sports:

Get ready for the winter sports season, with our resort guides and snow reports

Mapping Business:

We are backing British business, what is the confidence of the nation and what businesses are succeeding?

More reports:

Enjoy further reading from Travel to Fashion, Business to Sport, discover more

Need to Know Winter Sports Mapping Business More reports Find an IFA

Find a local independent financial advisor

Business city guides

Overseas contacts and local business information

Announcements

Search The Times Births, Marriages & Deaths

Crossword Club

Sign up today or try one of our free demo crosswords

Births, deaths, marriages

Place your announcement

Online Sudoku with daily prizes Find a Lawyer

Cut your legal costs

Classifieds  Cars Jobs Property Travel Cars Skip Cars of the Week Land Rover Range Rover

59/10 £87,990 West Yorkshire

Ferrari Enzo Coupe

2007 £POA Surrey

Car Insurance The best policy at the

best price Be Wiser Insurance Be Wiser Insurance

Great car insurance deals online

Car Insurance

Search for more cars and bikes Jobs Skip Jobs of the Week LEP GENERAL MANAGER

£COMPETITIVE Transformation Learning Partnership Six-figure package

Head of Democratic and Partnership Services

£82,000 Calderdale Council North East

Assistant Director – North

£60K - £70K Turning Point Yorkshire, North East, North West

Head of Business Finance – Centrica Energy Upstream

up to £120,000 Centrica Scotland

Search more Jobs Properties Times Online Property

Bridges Wharf, Battersea

Award-winning riverside development, SW11. Luxury apartments for sale from £350,000.

Mayfield Grange, Sussex

Find out more about our luxurious apartments and houses for sale in the heart of Sussex.

Looking for a Mortgage?

See your free Experian credit report beforehand

Search for more properties Holidays Skip Travel of the Week £159 – 4* Jersey spa hotel inc FREE car hire and ferry

Includes 3nts at the Hotel de France Hotel & Spa with breakfast, car hire and ferry travel. Same break by air costs £235. Valid for travel until 31 Mar 10.

Royal Caribbean January Dubai Ultimate Sale

New Dubai & Emirates Cruises with extra free nights in the Traders Hotel Dubai on selected cruises from £799pp!

Ionian Island Holidays

An inspirational collection of villas, boutique hotels & apartments in stunning locations from the Greek Island specialists

Celebrity Eclipse - Cruises from Southampton.

Pay for an Ocean Viewand receive a Free Upgrade to a Balcony stateroom + up to $200 Free Onboard Spend! Book Now!

Search for more holidays Place your advert now

Search Ad Reference:

Where am I?

Home Comment Leading Articles Contact us Back to top NewsCommentBusinessMoneySportLife & StyleTravelDrivingArts & EntsArchive Times Online Times Archive Google TLS Archive

Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.

 

Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths | Subscriptions | E-paper

News International associated websites: Milkround

 

Copyright 2010 Times Newspapers Ltd.

This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.

 

Blogs

Tools and Services Credit Clinic Restaurant Booking Encounters Business City Guides Financial Brochures Car Route Planner Books

Letters for publication on the letters page of The Times should be emailed here. Letters should include an address and daytime telephone number.

Letters for publication on the letters page of The Sunday Times should be emailed here or posted to us at 1, Pennington St, London E98 1ST. Fax: 020 7782 5454

Our Feedback Editor answers your queries

Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast

Get ready for the winter sports season, with our resort guides and snow reports

We are backing British business, what is the confidence of the nation and what businesses are succeeding?

Enjoy further reading from Travel to Fashion, Business to Sport, discover more

Find a local independent financial advisor

Overseas contacts and local business information

Search The Times Births, Marriages & Deaths

Sign up today or try one of our free demo crosswords

Place your announcement

Cut your legal costs

59/10 £87,990 West Yorkshire

2007 £POA Surrey

best price Be Wiser Insurance Be Wiser Insurance

Read Full Article »