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So deep is Labour's despair about Gordon Brown that some in his government express a bleaker view of their own future than does the opposition. In part, of course, this is tactical: the lower expectations, the less awful the party will look if its performance is better than catastrophic.

Many voters want Mr Brown out more than they want Mr Cameron in. Following the expenses scandal the whole political class is mistrusted, promoting abstentions and fringe party votes. In consequence, Conservative propaganda emphasises the perils, in a close election, of self-indulgent doubters voting for UK Independence party or the British National party. The electorate must be persuaded that Tory candidates need every dissenting ballot.

Mr Cameron has been wooing the Ulster Unionists. I...