A journalist recently had lunch with a Cabinet minister, and asked him what would happen if Labour won the election. Once he recovered from the shock, the minister said: "An immediate leadership challenge." This is a Prime Minister who runs a dysfunctional government and is detested by some of his own senior colleagues. The mood in Gordon Brown's Number 10 is like the final Act of Macbeth. So why are the Tories only 10 points ahead in the polls?
There is a simple answer. A lot of voters claim that they do not know what the Tories believe in. On the face of it, that is extraordinary. In 2008/9, the Tory party published a great deal of policy material, most notably the work done by Iain Duncan Smith's Centre for Social Justice. Over the past few weeks, Mr Cameron has unveiled sections of his draft manifesto. The party has made much more of its thinking publicly available than any previous Opposition. Yet the Tories have been given no credit.
Related Articles The Tories must do more than simply wait for victory Tories are too scared of their own shadow Gordon Brown's attack on Tory cuts has backfired in spectacular fashion A strong family and small state ought to go hand in hand David Cameron needs one last push
Whose fault is that? There can be only one answer: David Cameron's. He has been guilty of taking the voters too literally. When people say: "We don't know what the Tories stand for," they may think they are asking for small-print detail. But they are mistaken. What they are seeking is the material to make a moral judgment and answer a basic question: "Do we trust this man?"
Thus far, Mr Cameron has not passed that examination, because he has been insufficiently political: too uninterested in spin. This brings us to a paradox. A lot of people think of Mr Cameron as a smooth-faced youngster who has been caught up in politics for the past 20 years. All that may be true, but it is not the full picture. It overlooks crucial aspects of his character.
In a reticent, English way, he is religious. He has moral depth. Over the past few years, that has come into play. Mr Cameron has thought hard about complex and related questions. When he talks about the "broken society", it is not a glib phrase, but an anguished acknowledgment of the extent to which things have gone wrong in modern Britain.
This was not meant to happen. After 1945, the Attlee government greatly extended the welfare state. But for the able-bodied young, welfare was supposed to be a casualty-clearing station, not a way of life. Instead, the welfare system has gradually taken over millions of people, turning them into perpetual clients.
All this has been exacerbated by the crisis of the family. Since the early 1960s, rising levels of family breakdown have filled the prisons and the mental hospitals. Welfare dependency has cascaded down the generations. Over the past few decades, we have created a hereditary welfare aristocracy: children and grandchildren who have never known a close male relative in legitimate employment, and who have never thought of worki
By Bruce Anderson Published: 7:29PM GMT 17 Feb 2010
Comments 83 | Comment on this article
A journalist recently had lunch with a Cabinet minister, and asked him what would happen if Labour won the election. Once he recovered from the shock, the minister said: "An immediate leadership challenge." This is a Prime Minister who runs a dysfunctional government and is detested by some of his own senior colleagues. The mood in Gordon Brown's Number 10 is like the final Act of Macbeth. So why are the Tories only 10 points ahead in the polls?
There is a simple answer. A lot of voters claim that they do not know what the Tories believe in. On the face of it, that is extraordinary. In 2008/9, the Tory party published a great deal of policy material, most notably the work done by Iain Duncan Smith's Centre for Social Justice. Over the past few weeks, Mr Cameron has unveiled sections of his draft manifesto. The party has made much more of its thinking publicly available than any previous Opposition. Yet the Tories have been given no credit.
Whose fault is that? There can be only one answer: David Cameron's. He has been guilty of taking the voters too literally. When people say: "We don't know what the Tories stand for," they may think they are asking for small-print detail. But they are mistaken. What they are seeking is the material to make a moral judgment and answer a basic question: "Do we trust this man?"
Thus far, Mr Cameron has not passed that examination, because he has been insufficiently political: too uninterested in spin. This brings us to a paradox. A lot of people think of Mr Cameron as a smooth-faced youngster who has been caught up in politics for the past 20 years. All that may be true, but it is not the full picture. It overlooks crucial aspects of his character.
In a reticent, English way, he is religious. He has moral depth. Over the past few years, that has come into play. Mr Cameron has thought hard about complex and related questions. When he talks about the "broken society", it is not a glib phrase, but an anguished acknowledgment of the extent to which things have gone wrong in modern Britain.
This was not meant to happen. After 1945, the Attlee government greatly extended the welfare state. But for the able-bodied young, welfare was supposed to be a casualty-clearing station, not a way of life. Instead, the welfare system has gradually taken over millions of people, turning them into perpetual clients.
All this has been exacerbated by the crisis of the family. Since the early 1960s, rising levels of family breakdown have filled the prisons and the mental hospitals. Welfare dependency has cascaded down the generations. Over the past few decades, we have created a hereditary welfare aristocracy: children and grandchildren who have never known a close male relative in legitimate employment, and who have never thought of working to earn their living. If that is not a broken society, what is?
If it is to be mended, education is vital. Under this Government, expenditure on education has increased almost as rapidly as the UK has fallen down the international education league tables. Far too many children leave school ill equipped to compete in the global economy. Far too many schools fail to develop their pupils' potential. So Mr Cameron is proposing the most radical reforms in the history of state education. In effect, the state would lose its monopoly over the provision of state-funded schools. There would be a devolution of power, to teachers, parents and voluntary bodies. If the Tories are in office for 10 years, education will be transformed.
Welfare and education reform are big ideas, comparable to Margaret Thatcher's plans for trade-union reform and privatisation. But there is a difference. Mrs Thatcher's targets were visible at a great distance. They could be assailed by a cavalry charge across the broad plains of history. It was easy to write the legislation. Mr Cameron's targets – failing schools, collapsed families – will require hand-to-hand fighting.
Still, he is a stubborn man and will not easily be deflected. Not long after David Cameron became the leader of the Tory party, Nicolas Sarkozy told him how much he admired the party's economic reforms of the 1980s. Mr Cameron hopes that in the 2030s, a French presidential candidate will tell the Tory leader how much he admires the reforms in the public services that were introduced in the 2010s.
The Sarkozy visit took place in the days when the Tories could still think in terms of sharing the proceeds of growth, as Margaret Thatcher did throughout most of her premiership. Mr Cameron then discovered that he would inherit a broken economy, and that it would be more a case of sharing the pain of indebtedness.
But crises create opportunities. There will have to be widespread cuts throughout government: as Ken Clarke has said, more drastic than anything which Mrs Thatcher implemented. But sensible cutting can also be the road to greater efficiency. John Major and Tony Blair dreamt of a day when a pound spent by the government on the taxpayers' behalf would yield the same value for money as the taxpayer could obtain for himself. In these desperate times, the need for wholesale reforms could produce public services which serve the public.
That is the high road. In order to be able to take it, Mr Cameron will first have to win the battle of the low road: an election against an opponent who is so desperate to avoid defeat that he will even pretend to be human. The Tory leader will have to renounce a lot of his high-mindedness between now and polling day.
It is not enough to have hundreds of thousands of words of policy material; hardly anyone will read through them. Instead, Mr Cameron will have to simplify his message and look for rhetorical warheads. Up to now, the Tories have been remarkably slow to find the equivalent of Labour's "boom and bust", "sleaze" and "22 Tory tax rises", the slogans which were deployed to such great effect in the run-up to the 1997 election, and which helped to conceal Labour's lack of policy.
The Tories have discovered one phrase which does resonate with the public: "We can't go on like this." That has a further advantage. It focuses the electorate on Gordon Brown, and on the crucial question which will decide the election: can we seriously contemplate five more years of him?
Mr Cameron himself should not indulge in negative campaigning; it is beneath the dignity of a party leader. But he ought to find others to do it for him, especially those who can land low blows with elegance and wit. This would have a further advantage. Although there is no panic in Tory HQ, rumours spread in anxious times. A more effective campaign would dispel the anxiety, and the rumours.
David Cameron is not in politics to be somebody. He is in politics to do good. But in order for him to have the chance to succeed in the great tasks he has set himself, he has to forget about them for the next few weeks and concentrate on a simple message and a forceful line of attack.
Comments: 83
David Cameron will be in no position to transform anything if he has failed to notice that Britain is no longer governed by Westminster, but by Brussels. He could of course give us some more cast-iron guarantees, but until we leave the shambolic mess that the EU has become, there is no hope for this country in the long term, and he should damn well know it.
Cameron's plans for Education and Welfare reform are irrelevant. Even if he is elected he will not be running the country, that will be Brussels' job.
Anderson writes: In a reticent, English way, he is religious. He has moral depth. Over the past few years, that has come into play. Mr Cameron has thought hard about complex and related questions. When he talks about the "broken society", it is not a glib phrase, but an anguished acknowledgment of the extent to which things have gone wrong in modern Britain'. .......................... Ah yes! We all well remember Cameron's seminal talks on the rich man not being able to pass through the eye of the needle and the kingdom of heaven belonging to the meek. We recall so well his intention that the money changers shall be thrown out of their temples and that the poor prodigal sinners should eb forgiven. My arse! Cameron is about as morally upright as Tohn Terry.
Bruce Anderson is right. The Tories do have clear cut policies. It's just that people haven't thought through the consequences. Tory policy is about reducing national debt. This is actually a policy of mass unemployment entirely consistent with their last run in power. The Tory policy is about increasing savings and reducing borrowing amongst households. This is a policy of significantly higher interest rates. Again consistent with their last debacle of a government. The Tory policy is about tax breaks for the super rich. This ius actually about tansferring wealth from poor to rich. Tory governments have always been about policy favouring the few and not the many. Tory policy stinks. Labour need to say this. LOUD AND CLEAR!
'David Cameron is not in politics to be somebody. He is in politics to do good.'Huh. The more I see of Dodgy Dave, the more I lean to the opinion that he's in politics simply because his family and friends regarded him as being to dim, shiftless and lacking in backbone to be trusted with a proper job. I've read the Labor manifesto, (as a work of creative writing it's excellent,) and I've read the Conservative manifesto, (which appears to consist of taking away what few rights employee's still have, and little else,) I'd love to vote conservative,under and any other circumstances I would do so without a moments hesitation,(it is time for a change,) but how can anyone have any confidence in a party that has chosen such a complete and utter loser as their leader. Dave is a symptom of the failure of the conservative party, not the cause. If by some miracle Cameron is somehow elected, change is absolutely the last thing we're going to get, unless from worse to catastrophic. I still hope for, 'Cometh the hour, Cometh the man, (or woman,)but one thing I am increasingly convinced of is that that person is not Dave Cameron
Cameron will transform Britain? I sincerely hope so because its under seige. Monarchs gone, Peers almost, sovereign gone, military going to France? southern England to Calais? Its starting to look like Britain is being parted out like a used car. GET OUT OF THE EU. If not then then best thing Cameron can do is cast his vote for UKIP.
So you think he must first sell the Tories to the voters ? That should be interesting since he has already sold the voters down the river. So it's up the Suwannee with him, or am I mixing my river metaphors?
It makes no difference who leads which party,remember they are all in it for themselves to further their political beliefs and line their own pockets like every other country in the world,the only differernce is that Cameron and his cronies will only as history has shown everytime look after the rich, and I think David Miliband will make a great pm and even if it remains with Gordon Brown,at least his heart is in the right place. I will vote Labour at the next election beacause they try to help the masses rather than the few! Incedently have you noticed mps from all sides of the house have been caught with their hands in the till...hope this makes choosing easy for those who are unsure
Read Full Article »