Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's upcoming visit to Saudi Arabia is long overdue. King Abdullah bin Abdul-Aziz had visited India in January 2006. This was the first visit by a Saudi monarch in 51 years. Dr Singh's reciprocal visit has been on the cards for the last couple of years. His will be the first trip to Saudi Arabia by an Indian Prime Minister since Indira Gandhi's visit in 1982. These dates attest the lost decades in the relationship between the two countries. Nevertheless, the Prime Minister's visit comes at a crucial time in West Asian affairs.
India's relations with Saudi Arabia did not really take off until about a decade back. During the early years of the Cold War, Riyadh put itself firmly in the American camp, whilst New Delhi stood against all alliances. Two developments in the 1970s drove them further apart. The emasculation of Pakistan in 1971 followed by the oil crisis of 1973 set the stage for closer ties between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Following the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan in 1979, Saudi Arabia cooperated closely with Pakistan and the US in financing the Mujahideen fighting against the Red Army. India sought to adopt a more nuanced stance: it did not openly condemn the Soviet invasion, but privately urged Moscow to pull back. In any event, the gulf between their positions was evident. Despite Indira Gandhi's visit, it could not be papered over.
In the immediate aftermath of the Cold War, too, the relationship was in choppy waters. India's ambiguous stance on the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the subsequent developments antagonised the Saudis, who saw themselves as the next target of Saddam Hussein's expansionist ambitions. Further, with the onset of the insurgency in Kashmir, the dispute between India and Pakistan once again attracted international attention. The Saudi stance on this issue was a constant irritant to India. Finally, following the Oslo Accords between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organisation, India established diplomatic ties with Israel "” a move that caused some friction with the Saudis.
Nevertheless, during this period relations between the two countries were also deepening along other dimensions. As India's economy liberalised and grew rapidly, energy resources became a major driver of the relationship.
Saudi Arabia is now the largest supplier of oil to India. India, in turn, is the fourth largest importer of Saudi oil "” after China, the US and Japan. The "Delhi Declaration"� signed during the King's visit in 2006 called for closer economic engagement and energy partnership. The latter will remain a critical component of the relationship in the years ahead. New Delhi is also looking to attract Saudi companies and investment in the infrastructure sector.
Equally important has been the presence of nearly two million Indians in Saudi Arabia. They constitute the largest community of expatriates in that country and play an important role in its domestic economy. Related to these trends is the strengthening of cultural ties. The number of Indian Muslims visiting the holy sites in Saudi Arabia has been steadily increasing over the last decade. During the Prime Minister's visit, both countries will look to further strengthen their ties in all of these areas. But they should also focus on four other, pressing issues.
India should look for increased cooperation on countering terrorism. Following the Mumbai attacks of 2008, Riyadh has expressed interest in doing so. An extradition treaty is apparently ready to be signed. It has been under discussion since King Abdullah's visit to India, and its conclusion will pave the way for better coordination on counter-terrorism. India should also push for an institutional arrangement to share information pertaining to terrorist financing.
India should also have a candid discussion about the situation in Pakistan. To be sure, Islamabad enjoys a much closer relationship with Riyadh. But Saudi Arabia also has the maximum leverage on Pakistan "” in many ways even more than the US, let alone China. At various points in Pakistan's turbulent history, the Saudis have played an important role in its domestic politics. Nawaz Sharif and Pervez Musharraf are the two most recent beneficiaries of Saudi patronage. Saudi clout in Pakistan has only increased lately. Just a few months ago, the Saudis summoned the squabbling politicians of Pakistan for individual discussions. However tricky it might seem, engaging the Al Saud family on Pakistan makes eminent sense for New Delhi.
The deepening crisis in Afghanistan is yet another area where New Delhi and Riyadh could look for some common ground. President Hamid Karzai has recently visited Saudi and requested for Riyadh's assistance in reaching out to sections of the Taliban. This is an astute move, aimed at minimising Pakistan's role in any efforts at reconciliation with elements of the insurgency. The Saudis are not entirely sure if they wish to perform this role. They believe that the top leadership of the Taliban will not be willing to sever ties with the Al Qaeda. And the Saudis do not want to assist any process that might end up strengthening the Al Qaeda.
Finally, it is the looming crisis in Iran that will provide the strategic backdrop to the discussions. Iran's determination to persist with its enrichment activities has generated immense concern among the Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia. They fear that a nuclear Iran will overturn the precarious regional strategic balance. Simultaneously, they are unnerved at the prospect of a military strike on Iran by the US or Israel. India's position on the Iranian programme is carefully crafted: as a signatory of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, Iran has the right to peaceful uses of atomic energy, but it must also fulfil its obligations. India has also consistently opposed any military options. This is calculated to preserve India's own interests vis-à-vis Iran. But it also affords New Delhi the room to offer extended strategic cooperation with Riyadh and other Arab states. Such an approach will not be regarded as inimical by Iran. Given Saudi Arabia's bulk in India's extended neighbourhood, it seems sensible to move in this direction. - Srinath Raghavan is a Senior Fellow at the Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi
Copyright © 2010 Deccan Chronicle. All rights reserved. For reprint rights: Deccan Chronicle Service This site is best viewed with Internet Explorer 6.0 or higher; Firefox 2.0 or higher at a minimum screen resolution of 1024x768
Read Full Article »