Murder Under a Mushroom Cloud

Sunday Times, The Times February 21, 2010

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Minette Marrin

Where am I?

The past week’s fascination with Mossad’s latest escapade, and the subsequent diplomatic spat with Israel, may have gripped like a spy thriller but needs to be kept in perspective. The killing of a senior Hamas operative was important as part of a much bigger and more significant story.

Tensions in the Middle East, high even at the best of times, are ratcheting up on an almost daily basis. At the most basic level, Israel and the Palestinian Authority are incapable of agreeing to meaningful talks even though both sides go through the motions and talk a good game of sincerity.

The Palestinians say they need a sign of good faith from the Israelis and demand that Israel ceases all settlement construction. Israel says it has agreed to an unprecedented 10-month settlement building freeze — under American pressure — but refuses to include East Jerusalem because it does not consider the area a settlement. Result: stalemate and a worrying strengthening of Hamas’s claim on Palestinian support, with the argument that Fatah’s more moderate stance is incapable of delivering a genuine Palestinian state.

Syria is talking in increasingly martial terms, threatening war with Israel just when the United States has made a rapprochement with Syria a priority of its Middle East push. That is why Syria is sounding so militant and why the Americans are so keen to peel the country away from the Iranian axis.

The key to all of this is Iran. Its client organisations, Hezbollah and Hamas, are the main destabilising agents in the region. Indeed, Mahmoud al-Mabhouh, the murdered Hamas official, was apparently in Dubai to secure another arms shipment from Iran. The Israeli government fears Iran is preparing Hezbollah and Hamas for renewed terror strikes. Hezbollah has been building up a powerful armoury since the 2006 Lebanon war; history shows it does not simply sit on its weapons.

All these issues coalesce around the biggest one of all: Iran’s putative nuclear weapon. Even the United Nations now seems to recognise that the threat is real, as a leaked report last week shows. Sooner rather than later President Obama will have to act. Robert Gates, the US defence secretary, spoke recently about the imminent imposition of serious sanctions but this is dependent on Russian and Chinese co-operation, which is far from certain.

Iran appears to hold all the aces: it continues to run diplomatic rings around the West; its nuclear programme gets ever closer to success; it has Hezbollah and Hamas at its disposal; and it looks increasingly the dominant power in the region. The omens are worrying, to say the least.

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