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Last week, senior students at the Naval War College presented their Final Exercise briefs. In assessing how the world of 2030 will take shape, many drew on the National Intelligence Council's report (.pdf), "Global Trends 2025: A World Transformed," particularly its assessment -- as a "relative certainty" -- that "a global multipolar system is emerging with the rise of China, India, and others."

This is the future everyone expects, but in order to determine what steps the United States should take now, in 2010, to mold and nudge how this future will unfold, we need to answer a fundamental question:...