Mandelson Is Losing the Spin Game

Sunday Times, The Times April 4, 2010

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Eleanor Mills

Where am I?

For political junkies, one treat to look forward to on election night has been a repeat of the “Portillo moment” of 1997. Labour’s victory then was made sweeter by the defeat of Michael Portillo, cabinet minister and, at the time, standard-bearer for the Tory right. The icing on the cake of a Tory victory this time would be an election-night defeat for a Labour cabinet star. The name of Ed Balls, the children’s secretary, has been mentioned.

As things have turned out, we have not had to wait. Last week saw a Portillo moment even before the election has been called. The crestfallen face of Lord Mandelson, new Labour from his head to his elegantly pedicured toes, spoke volumes. The prince of darkness was outmanoeuvred by somebody he sees as a political novice, “Boy” George Osborne, and did not know how to respond.

The Tory scheme to shelve most of Labour’s planned April 2011 National Insurance (NI) rise, paid for by cutting government waste, takes a leaf out of the new Labour campaign manual. However, when politicians pledge Whitehall efficiency savings — as Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling have done down the years — scepticism is the only sensible response. How will the shadow chancellor square it with his “unwavering commitment” to sort out the budget deficit?

Yet, and this may explain Lord Mandelson’s problem, dodgy economics can be very good politics — as the prime minister knows better than most. The government mistook the Conservatives, believing the party’s commitment to cutting the economic deficit and its scepticism about efficiency savings would mean it would stick with a harsh austerity message up to polling day. Labour can hardly complain because it has claimed that “Tory cuts” would plunge back into recession. In the meantime the Tories are happy to shower promises like confetti, including the NI change, a commitment to improve the availability of cancer drugs and details of a marriage tax allowance to be unveiled this week.

Labour has been shocked to discover that the business vote is eminently biddable. With nearly 40 business leaders and most business organisations signed up to the Tory plan, the government is stuck. Unlike the battle among economists about cutting the deficit a few weeks ago, Labour cannot trump this level of Tory business support. Even the magic of Mandelson will not persuade voters that he, Mr Brown and Mr Darling are more to be trusted than the people who run Britain’s biggest businesses. Having created a fiscal fog, the government has got lost in it.

Labour should be worried. Our YouGov poll today shows the Tories with a 10-point lead, their best since early January and enough for a working majority with a fair wind in the marginals. Even media critics of the Tories are treating David Cameron and Mr Osborne as the next prime minister and chancellor, an acceptance that they were struggling for a fortnight ago. Talk of a hung parliament is starting to subside. The Tories may not have won every intellectual battle but people can see them as the next government.

Things can change over the next 30 days or so, although experts say campaigns do not really change anything. Labour, now firmly on the back foot, may have eye-catching initiatives in its manifesto. It does not feel like it. The budget was a damp squib and the government’s long-term care plan was as woolly as a spring lamb. Labour’s best hope is that the Tories screw up. Mr Cameron did not come this far to do that at the last minute.

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