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The Thai ruling elite would do well not to underestimate the red-shirted rebels
The continuing tumult in Thailand, which this weekend saw the worst violence in nearly 20 years, is too often portrayed as a clash between two forces that behave as badly as each other: the rural poor, spurred on by the ousted tycoon Thaksin Shinawatra, versus a military- and monarchist-backed elite. One tribe wears red shirts and the other yellow, but they both use the same tactics, the argument goes. It ill behoves the current prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva to be too surprised by the red-shirted invasion of the summit held by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Pattaya, when the yellow shirts, some of whose representatives are included in the current cabinet, laid siege to both airports, forcing the resignation of the government. The difference is that no one fired on the yellow shirts in 2008.
Something fundamental could be happening this time. Thaksin said that now that the military had put tanks on the streets, it was time for a revolution. It may not be quite the one the oligarch envisages. If, as the political scientist Giles Ji Ungpakorn wrote on our website, the protests represent a larger social movement, then the red shirts are not just pushing for the return of their hero, Mr Thaksin. They are staking out for themselves a larger role in a society dominated by the urban elites.
It is premature to talk about a republican threat to the monarchist order, although King Bhumipol Adulyadej remains frail and silent, even when the protesters have targeted his principal adviser, General Prem Tinsulanonda. But it has obviously not been good for the palace to allow itself to be so closely linked to the military and conservative elite, at a time when the country is shaken by the weekend's death toll and the royal succession still lies ahead. If the king used to represent stability and compromise, his association by default with the status quo only further polarises Thai society.
Mr Abhisit received two further political setbacks yesterday. The head of the army, Anupong Paochinda, ruled out the use of the military to remove protesters who have occupied significant parts of the capital, describing the main demand of the protesters, the dissolution of parliament, as a reasonable step. Then came news that the country's election commission recommended the dissolution of his party, on charges that it had received illegal donations. The election commission's action further weakens the coalition government and with it the prime minister's resistance to the notion of early elections. But if there is another election and Mr Thaksin's surrogates win, they in turn will be attacked for vote-buying and political corruption. Mr Thaksin is using the rural poor as his political instrument.
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13 Apr 2010, 1:34AM
My wife saw the coverage out of the corner of her eye, and shouted to our youngest: "Quick! It's Manchester United!"
The reason I don't take the article too seriously is that Thailand - at least in the 25 years I've known it - has always had the triangle of Army, Church & Monarchy, with 'government' flailing around transiently somewhere in the middle. It's brave to predict that this time something might actually change, but I doubt it.
13 Apr 2010, 2:33AM
13 Apr 2010, 5:04AM
VinoNoir, You can bet that most Thais would think your 'half-Uncle' is a prize dickhead... Rural poor can be a misleading term. The rice farmers in my area own their land, have houses, tractors, cars, fridges, TV's etc. I'll admit the combine harvesters, tracked bulldozers & JCB's are shared. Their kids (usually two) go to a local school built at least a generation ago. The local clinic has at least one doctor who has been trained in the US. I have not noticed much enthusiasm for Dr. Shinawatra here. In fact the majority view appears to be that the sale of Shin Corporation was a fraud of Marcos sized proportions, and his deposing in the coup was necessary. None of them are in Bangkok, as it's the rice-growing season here. It's doubly strange then that the area voted overwhelmingly for his proxy party at the last election. Perhaps when the twin issues of political corruption and election rigging are addressed by politicians on both sides of the political divide, Thailand will finally get the governance its people deserve.
13 Apr 2010, 5:16AM
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