It is undeniable that U.S. prospects in Afghanistan look bleak. Over 100 NATO soldiers were killed in June—more than during any month of the war to date. No European government and increasingly no American one can sustain such losses for long. At the same time, senior U.S. officials who handle Afghanistan and Pakistan policy have been clashing with one another, both in Washington and Kabul. Nor is there a reliable partner on the ground. President Hamid Karzai has presided over corruption and a striking lack of progress in development. All the while, the Taliban have been spreading throughout the country. No matter what advances NATO forces make during the next six months in Helmand and Kandahar provinces—Taliban strongholds, which are located in the south—it seems fair to wonder whether these achievements will prove remotely sustainable over the long term.

