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The Julia Gillard leadership coup that will determine Labor's destiny for the next decade is now on trial as Labor stumbles in the campaign and Tony Abbott looms as more formidable than his opponents calculated.

Gillard is in trouble on two fronts: defining her own policy agenda separate from Kevin Rudd's; and as target of a retaliatory campaign by pro-Rudd forces that threatens to sabotage her election.

Labor strategists obsessed about control of their campaign face the nightmare of periodic media leaks beyond their control. The shadow of treachery hovers over Gillard. Rudd is going to hospital for a gall bladder operation but the Rudd factor looms larger with his statement that he is ready to campaign in Queensland and the rest of Australia, a potentially...