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Reports of the death of the PLA's naval expansion are exaggerated. Any lull in development is likely to prove temporary.

At a conference last summer, a respected China scholar stated flatly that the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) halted development of its submarine fleet after taking delivery of the last of its Russian-built Kilo-class diesel attack boats in 2006. From such leading indicators he concluded that Beijing can do little more than issue ‘hollow threats’ against US naval operations in Asia. And it’s ‘hyperbole’ to think the Chinese military can contest US Navy access to regional waters.

This autumn, in a similar vein, some maritime specialists in places like Washington and Newport have taken to pointing out that the PLAN has built...