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Washington continues to insist that everything is going as planned in Iraq. I continue to be skeptical of that optimism. While it is important to recognize the continuing progress in Iraq (and there is continuing progress there), it is equally important to acknowledge the serious problems looming on Iraq's horizons"”both near and far.

In particular, Moktada al-Sadr's sudden return to Iraq this month"”and the dismissal of the warrant for his arrest for the death of "˜Abd al-Majid al-Khoi"”strikes me as far more pernicious than the administration has suggested. It is a mistake to dismiss it, as some senior administration officials have, as a positive sign that all of Iraq's former warlords are now taking part in the political process. Moreover,...