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TOKYO – Thailand has had a pretty good year since the demonstrations of April and May 2010, culminated in a bloody crackdown on May 19 in which 91 people died. The country is largely peaceful, the economy is thriving, unemployment is low and the currency is strong. All are usually good omens for success at the ballot box.

But the national election, which will be held Sunday, is more likely to muddy than clarify the long-running political drama that has divided the country for more than a decade. The only thing certain about this election, and more importantly what happens after the votes are counted, is uncertainty, says Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij.

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This election represents another turn in the long-running political...