THEY seem more frequent than the tempests that threatened America, Taiwan and China this week—and much more predictable. Whenever the American government approves the sale of weaponry to Taiwan, a storm disrupts its relations with China. Another one is due this month, when America is to announce its decision on how to upgrade Taiwan’s fleet of fighter jets. The row this time is likely to be full more of sound than of genuine fury. But the underlying strategic calculations remain based on dangerous assumptions, and are muddied by the domestic politics of all three countries.