Can Intelligence Forecasting Ever Improve?

Can Intelligence Forecasting Ever Improve?

At the beginning of 2011, the United States government’s vast and sophisticated intelligence agencies thoroughly analyzed the situation in Egypt. “Our assessment,” said Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, “is that the Egyptian government is stable.”

That was Jan. 25. The same day, a massive demonstration blossomed in Tahrir Square. More followed. A week later, longtime Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak announced he would not seek re-election in September. On Feb. 11, Mubarak resigned.

 

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