The European Union is evolving quickly and unpredictably; Britain's capacity to influence that process is in decline. It is this combination of circumstances that will lead eventually to a referendum. David Cameron travels to Brussels for a summit on 30 January with an impossible mission. He is expected to break out of the diplomatic isolation that resulted from his decision to obstruct a new EU treaty last December. Yet he must also retain the goodwill of his MPs, most of whom believe his isolation in Europe is quite splendid.
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