Syria is not slipping into civil war. It’s already there. By any reasonable standard of the term – numbers dead, the strength and organisation of rebel forces, or the intensity of violence – Syria’s conflict has grown into more than an insurgency. Its rebel forces, though divided and dispersed, present a national and democratic challenge to a minoritarian dictatorship. Both the Assads and the west face a fork in the road. The first path is a protracted civil war of the kind that shattered Lebanon. The second – and right – path is a shorter campaign, culminating in the dismantling of the Assad regime.
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