Greece's Default Is Coming

Greece's Default Is Coming

What would constitute an economically rational choice for Greece, given the economic and political situation? I see four options, each of which is fraught with uncertainty. The first would be the status quo: more austerity and economic reforms as outlined by the International Monetary Fund and the EU. One risk is that this would keep Greece in an eternal depression and a debt trap, where economic output fell faster than growth. Another is that, while on paper it might just work economically, it would almost certainly fail politically.

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