Avoiding a Creeping Defeat in Afghanistan

The US is not losing the war in Afghanistan in the classic military sense. The US, its allies, and Afghan forces still win virtually every direct military encounter. The problem is that this is a political war where the political impact of combat, politics, governance, and economics are far more important than tactical success in directly defeating the enemy. At this level, the insurgents still seem to have significant momentum and are certainly not being decisively defeated. Moreover, tactical military success is no guarantee of a successful Transition. The choice between victory or defeat will also center around the success or failure of the Afghan government and Afghan forces after most US and ISAF forces largely withdraw in 2014, and major cuts occur in aid and military spending. As was the case in Vietnam, the US can win every battle and still lose the war. A new report by the Burke Chair entitled Avoiding Creeping Defeat in Afghanistan: The Need for Realistic Assumptions, Strategy, and Plans is available on the CSIS website at https://csis.org/files/publication/120828_Avoiding_Creeping_Defeat_Afghanistan.pdf. This report highlights the critical problems in the current strategy, the way it is implemented, reporting on progress in the war and Transition, and the lack of credible plans for the future.