Why al-Shabab Is Losing in Somalia

Somalia’s (AMISOM) forces have pushed the group out of Mogadishu as well as other territory throughout southern Somalia. Its last significant stronghold is in Kismayo, a strategic port city. As AMISOM forces converge on al-Shabab’s key refuge, the militant group has transformed from a Shari`a-enforcing body to a weakened band of insurgents. Based on recent fieldwork in Nairobi, Kenya,[1] this article examines the three primary factors behind al-Shabab’s recent setbacks: the successful model provided by AMISOM; clan rivalries within al-Shabab; and al-Shabab’s mishandling of the regional drought in 2011. The article also identifies the challenges facing the Somali government as it begins to strengthen its position against what has until recently been an intractable foe.