Eurozone Should Look to 1920s & '30s UK

Eurozone Should Look to 1920s & '30s UK

The IMF looks at a number of other interesting cases. The post-second World War reduction of US public debt is one. Another is the experience of Japan over the past two decades, which has parallels with the UK in the 1920s and 1930s, particularly as regards deflation. Other cases are Belgium in the 1980s, and Canada and Italy in the 1990s. The most important conclusion is that fiscal consolidation is impossible without a supportive monetary environment, with ultra-low real interest rates and a buoyant economy. Japan failed on this in the 1990s and 2000s, as did the UK in the 1920s and 1930s. The ineffectiveness of monetary policy in countries with leveraged private sectors, such as the UK and US today, creates similar constraints, as the UK government is learning. Inflation has also accelerated the lowering of public debt burdens in the past. It would be surprising if it did not do so again.

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