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What would a presidential election be without pondering the potential for an October surprise? Under the standard scenario, an incumbent president uses the power of his office to engineer a foreign-policy success that burnishes his image going into the final weeks before an election. The possibility of such Machiavellian manipulation was barely discussed in September, when President Obama seemed to be lengthening his lead in the polls. Now that the gap in the race to the White House appears to be closing, October-surprise speculation is on the rise.