October 26, 2012
When North Korea Collapses
Robert Kaplan & Rodger Baker, Stratfor
How does one define collapse? The loss of central authority in the capital of Pyongyang, while fast-moving in a historical sense, might nevertheless play out over weeks rather than days. So at what point does China move forces across the Yalu and Tumen rivers to prevent a massive flight of refugees northward? At what point does the South Korean military act? Because North Korea is a heavily militarized state, the direction in which its commanders decide to defect -- to Beijing or to Seoul -- will be critical.
TAGGED: United States, Japan, Kim Jong-un, South Korea, North Korea, China