Which U.S. Political Party Is Better for Canada?

Canadians are fascinated with American elections. In 2012, as in previous election years, Canadians have followed the twists and turns of the U.S. election campaign almost as passionately as if they voted themselves. Because our countries are so closely integrated and American policies have a real impact on Canada, people on this side of the border have genuine preferences when it comes to U.S. politics, and for at least the past two decades, including the current election cycle, Canadians have preferred Democrats. It is often said, however, that this preference does not generally reflect the country’s actual economic interest. If Canadians chose with their pocketbooks, the argument often goes, they would prefer Republicans. This article puts this proposition to a series of tests, and the results may surprise more than a few.