While it’s far from clear who will win next week’s presidential election, four outcomes are within watermelon-seed-spitting distance from certain. One, the margin of victory will be slim. Two, the media will see that as proof of the terrible and worsening polarization that afflicts American society. Three, there will be headlines like “a nation divided.” And four, political scientists will shake their heads in amazement that a conclusion so wrong could be believed by so many intelligent people. The views of the American public are neither volatile nor increasingly extreme. American society is not polarized.