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South Asia is going through what can be called the first bounce of the nuclear ball, an arms buildup.  This is a time when Pakistan and India focus on acquiring fissile material and building weapons. This drives Pakistan’s plutonium mills and India’s commercial nuclear power deal with the United States.

The second bounce of the ball may be quite different than the first.  For example, it may see intense crises and shocks – aggravated by the enlarged nuclear forces.  So it would be a mistake to assume the current environment will be the environment of the future.  Like the first nuclear age, the Cold War, there are likely to be ebbs and flows in competition, with different problems and shocks developing over time, interspaced with periods of relative...