Yet another Arab-Kurd civil war is unlikely to materialise, but expect brinkmanship by Baghdad ahead of provincial elections in 2013. Mr Al Maliki has asserted himself in the same way before, such as in the 2008 Kurd-Arab standoff in Diyala, when federal forces unexpectedly moved on pershmerga in an effort to push them out of disputed areas. Like now, that offensive took place on the eve of elections.
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