“Pause” and “hard landing” have special meanings in China, of course. Growth slowed to an annualized rate of about 7 percent in the first half of this year -- lame by China’s standards, athletic by anybody else’s. Even the most pessimistic analysts talk of growth dropping at some point to 3 percent or 4 percent a year, which would hardly count as a landing, let alone a hard one, in most of the world.
For now, the economy seems to be rebounding. Factory output in November was 10.1 percent higher than a year earlier, beating expectations. Still, the question remains whether China is about to slip to a slower trajectory -- and, if it does, whether the government can handle the political implications.
China’s development model has produced spectacular growth. The fear is that anything less might start a vicious circle and the miracle could start to unravel. Might that happen? The experts are divided, but there’s agreement on several points.
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