AP Photo

It may be Asia's 21st century equivalent of the assassination of Austria's Archduke Ferdinand that sparked World War I. Growing tensions over territorial disputes in the East and South China Seas threaten to disrupt the oft-heralded Asian Century. Whatever the outcome, many see more than just competing nationalisms, the scars of national memory and the rise of an increasingly assertive China behind clashing interests.

To many, this is about oil: a widely-shared perception that beneath these disputed waters lays a treasure trove of oil and gas able to satisfy energy needs of dynamic Asian economies.

Unfortunately, there is no basis for this conventional wisdom. The reality is that the winner of East or South China Sea disputes is unlikely to gain enough...