Asia Pivot Imperative as West Fades

Asia Pivot Imperative as West Fades

In a radically transformed world, there will not be any hegemonic power. Instead, power will be dispersed among states, and diffused from states to informal networks and individuals. The era of Western ascendancy since 1750 and of US ascendancy known as Pax Americana that began in 1945, the report argues, is coming to an end. By 2030, Asia will be bigger in economic size and strategic weight than Europe and the US combined. But the US will remain first among equals and it will retain an unmatched edge in the ability to form coalitions of allies and friends, and mobilise networks of civil society actors and individuals. Straight-line projections tend to be as unreliable in the long run as they are unavoidable for setting policy in the short term. Within that caveat, we can be reasonably confident that Asia's destiny will be shaped by the Big Three of China, India and Japan. The strategic footprint of their relations with one another and with the US will cover the world. Co-operation between them will promote peace and underwrite prosperity in Asia. Rivalry and conflict will roil the world.

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