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Elections could hardly come at a worse time for the ruling establishment. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is term-limited and ineligible to run for a third time as president. It seems likely that Iran’s voters will only be allowed a choice between candidates endorsed by the religious establishment. Candidates must be endorsed by at least 100 “experts” (so designated by the regime) and be between 40 and 75 years old. Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani, defeated by Ahmadinejad in 2005 and long considered Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei’s highest-profile rival, is 78 and thus ineligible to stand. Other opposition figures will also, doubtless, be excluded. So the ingredients for trouble are all in place. The combination of political oppression and economic...