There's a Method to Assad's Massacres

These moves, therefore, suggest that sectarian cleansing is not being conducted for the purpose of establishing a potential state but for other strategic reasons to ensure the flow of Alawite fighters from and into this area. As the rebels close in on the coastline, the regime probably feels that such massacres will deepen sectarian tensions and pit Sunni and Alawites against each other, thereby convincing the Alawites they need to fight alongside the Assad regime for their survival. A similar ploy was employed in the beginning of the conflict in 2011. A month into the anti-regime protests, pro-regime militias - their fighters with accents and names associated in Syria with Alawites - filmed themselves humiliating protesters in the same village as the weekend's massacre. The recent carnage in Banias has been among the most grisly in Syria's conflict in terms of numbers dead. The message to Sunni fighters is that the coastline is a red line. For Alawites the message is one of reassurance, that the coast will not face the same fate as Al Qusayr's in Homs, where residents felt the regime could not shield them from rebel attacks last month - when Hizbollah intervened. Alawite fighters have been steadily suffering losses; if these losses come closer to home, that might push many of them to realise a victory for the rebels is possible. And this is a scenario the Assad regime seeks to avoid.