And the Winner in Ukraine Is ... China

In the end, China’s rise is much more significant than Crimea’s fate, and the United States should avoid reacting to the Ukraine crisis in ways that could severely undermine its ability to manage this paramount priority. China and Russia are not allies today and Beijing will not publicly support Crimea’s self-determination, something that Chinese leaders clearly see as contrary to their view of their own country’s territorial integrity. Nevertheless, there is little doubt about Beijing’s views of who is to blame for the crisis in Ukraine—the West—or about China’s sympathy for Moscow. Leaving Moscow no alternative to a far stronger relationship with Beijing, possibly including new high-tech arms sales and even diplomatic support of China’s territorial claims, would be a Pyrrhic victory. Perversely, efforts to displace Russia’s gas exports to Europe, which current events are likely to accelerate, may make Russian-Chinese deals more likely by putting new pressure on Gazprom to accept the lower prices China is offering. As Henry Kissinger recently wrote, the administration should remember that “the test of policy is how it ends, not how it begins.”