Human tripwires can be a useful deterrent. But only if the stakes are high on all sides, the red line being defended is clear, and the commitment to act is firm. There is such a clear red line at the borders of NATO countries, and the Barack Obama administration should be lauded for sending air power to Poland and Lithuania in recent days. However, when the perceived stakes are higher for one side than the other, and the facts on the ground are murky and fluid, tripwires can easily blow up in your face. That’s a pretty good description of Ukraine today.
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