Historically a key channel for anti-apartheid activism, NUMSA claims 338,000 members, and would likely be the most legitimate challenger to the ruling party. Respected South African political commentator Steven Friedman called NUMSA’s break from the ANC “significant.” “For the first time, a major…union–the country’s biggest—has broken with the ANC alliance and is talking openly about an alternative. This could reshape electoral politics.” As Friedman explained, NUMSA would need just 10 percent of the vote for the ANC to lose its majority. “There is a chance that NUMSA will be the catalyst for ending the ANC’s electoral dominance by 2019,” he writes.
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