David Cameron was right to let the Scottish people vote on their future and may even reap some reward for it. It is always a risk, democracy. But now it seems to be paying off for him. Considering that Ukip was supposed to have split the Conservative vote, the Tories did well in the local and European elections, with a share of the vote just one and a half percentage points less than Labour’s. This week, the Tories might even hold Newark in the by-election. A Survation poll in the constituency put them eight points ahead of Ukip with eight days to go. It could be the first seat held in a by-election by the Conservatives in government since William Hague in Richmond in 1989.