Speculation about what this may mean for the crisis has already begun, with responses ranging from Jacob Heilbrunn’s fears that this is a Lusitania moment that could draw the U.S. and Russia into a new world war, to Marc Champion’s more optimistic take that this could be the catalyst to de-escalating the conflict.*
I’m going to not-so-boldly suggest that it will likely be something in the middle. In fact, it’s quite possible the incident won’t change the underlying dynamics in Ukraine that much at all.
