No one should be surprised if the supreme leader doesn’t allow negotiations to drag on beyond November, the new deadline, even if the West offers more economic relief. If talks end, the White House could try to bolster its diplomacy with more sanctions and a congressional authorization to use military force. The odds of such an approach working, however, aren’t good. The White House’s palpable fear of conventional conflict, which Khamenei regularly mocks, and the West’s track record of giving ground in talks, probably proves in Khamenei’s eyes the strategic wisdom of his nuclear aspirations.
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