Time is ticking away fast in campaigning for the referendum on Scottish independence. Interest in the referendum reached new heights on Aug. 5 with the televised debate between Alex Salmond, first minister of Scotland and leader of the Yes campaign, and Alistair Darling, chairman of the Better Together campaign. Surprising expectations, Salmond was widely agreed to have stumbled in the debate on the question of the new Scotland’s currency. This was reflected in snap polls that followed the TV debate, with Darling viewed as the clear winner. The verdict of the Scottish public was also reflected in subsequent polling on voting intentions for the referendum, which observed a clear swing toward the No campaign. When the most recent polls are included in our forecasting model (detailed in this post), they produce a similar swing in the predicted share of votes on referendum day.