China Could Also Lose Taiwan

China Could Also Lose Taiwan

The events of the past three weeks in Hong Kong have underlined two major points. First, Beijing’s policy has not changed. Second, China’s attempt to reintegrate Taiwan with the mainland has been postponed indefinitely—perhaps forever. Beijing’s preeminent leader, Xi Jinping, has refused to allow Hong Kongers to participate in the nomination process that is the first step in the selection of the next leader of the province. This does not surprise anyone in Taipei. Even though Beijing formally accepts the one country-two systems formula, it does not want an autonomous Hong Kong, politically or legally speaking. Nor does it want an independent Taiwan.

One can see the reasons. An independent-minded Hong Kong would be a beacon to democrats all over China, to say nothing of Southeast Asia. Movements in Guangdong toward democracy would be strengthened, and local elections might be used to settle economic disputes. Disputants in Xinjiang and Tibet could take heart that their appeals for autonomy might still be heard. But the real audience for the Hong Kong protests is Taipei. Taiwan’s President Ma Ying-jeou has said: “We fully understand and support the Hong Kong residents’ demand for universal suffrage.” The Wall Street Journal reported on October 12 that “one of the most significant outcomes of the policies in Hong Kong over the past weeks has been to further diminish what was left of Beijing’s hope of bringing Taiwan into the fold.” Australia’s former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, an expert on China, recently commented: “[T]o lose Taiwan would mean political delegitimization and a form of civilizational sacrilege” [for China]. Brandishing umbrellas to weather tear gas assaults, the Hong Kong protestors ridiculed the police and Leung Chun-ying (who came into office as administrator with a mere 689 votes.) The protestors sang “Happy Birthday” in English to the police and the agitators in Mongkok charged with breaking up the demonstrations. They sported Yellow ribbons and attire not unlike the yellow sunflowers Taiwanese protestors proudly held up in their demonstrations against the Taiwanese Parliament when, last March, it considered and then rejected legislation that would have opened up Taipei to an invasion by China’s service industry. Though they are now moving barricades to facilitate traffic in the financial district, Hong Kong’s protestors will not go away.

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