Recent events have brought the topic of Korean unification back into public debate. Republic of Korea (ROK) President Park Geun-hye gave an important address on the subject last spring in Dresden, Germany. Last fall, Kim Jong-un’s month-long disappearance got observers speculating about his health and whereabouts. Was Kim still in power? Was the regime losing its grip? Kim reappeared (apparently having undergone ankle surgery), but speculation continues about North Korea’s political stability. And last November, the 25th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall encouraged further comparisons between German and Korean unification.
In these discussions of Korean unification, observers have debated its economic benefits versus costs. While some analysts emphasize a unified Korea’s tremendous economic potential, others warn of the huge price tag required to bring the DPRK up to the ROK’s living standards. These debates are important, but the economics of Korean unification cannot be discussed alone. Any discussion of Korea’s economic future must consider the potential for what might be a truly perilous and drawn-out transition.
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